Warnings of Chaos Ignored

From White House Watch. By Dan Froomkin
Special to washingtonpost.comFriday, May 25, 2007; 12:52 PM

for full article
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/linkset/2005/04/11/LI2005041100879.html

An impending report from the Senate intelligence committee is likely to revive questions about whether President Bush was so consumed with invading Iraq and overthrowing Saddam Hussein that he didn't care about the disastrous consequences that could -- and did -- ensue.

Katherine Shrader reports for the Associated Press: "U.S. intelligence agencies warned senior members of the Bush administration in early 2003 that invading Iraq could create internal conflict that would give Iran and al-Qaida new opportunities to expand their influence, according to an upcoming Senate report.

"Officials familiar with the Senate Intelligence Committee investigation also say analysts warned against U.S. domination in the region, which could increase extremist recruiting. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because the report's declassification is not finished. It could be made public as soon as this week.

"The committee also found that the warnings predicting what would happen after the U.S.-led invasion were circulated widely in government, including to the Defense Department and the Office of the Vice President. It wasn't clear whether President Bush was briefed. . . .

"A former intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the decision to go to war had been made months before the 2003 papers were drafted and analysts had no delusions that they were going to head off military action. Rather, the official said, they hoped their warnings would be considered in the planning."

Jonathan Karl reports for ABC News: "In stark contrast to the WMD fiasco, the intelligence community was largely on target about what the United States would face in postwar Iraq.

"In January 2003, the CIA's National Intelligence Council delivered to the White House two reports predicting what the United States would face in Iraq. The reports, which until now were classified, are expected to be released by the Senate Intelligence Friday. . . .

"The first report is titled 'Principal Challenges in Post-Saddam Iraq.' It paints a picture of an Iraq beset by ethnic violence and unlikely to accept democracy. Here are some highlights:

"* Iraq is unlikely to break apart, but it is 'a deeply divided society.' There is 'a significant chance' that groups would 'engage in violent conflict . . . unless there is an occupying force to prevent them from doing so.'

"* Neighboring states could 'jockey for position . . . fomenting ethnic strife inside Iraq.'

"* 'Iraq's political culture does not foster political liberalism or democracy.'

"* 'A generation of Iraqis' who have been subjected to Saddam's repression are 'distrustful of surrendering or sharing power.' . . .

"The second report is titled 'Regional Consequences of Regime Change in Iraq.' This report warns of potential instability in the region, especially if the war were to be long and violent. It also warns that al Qaeda could exploit U.S. focus on Iraq by re-establishing its presence in Afghanistan."