Buddhists stole my clarinet... and I'm still as mad as Hell about it! How did a small-town boy from the Midwest come to such an end? And what's he doing in Rhode Island by way of Chicago, Pittsburgh, and New York? Well, first of all, it's not the end YET! Come back regularly to find out. (Plant your "flag" at the bottom of the page, and leave a comment. Claim a piece of Rhode Island!) My final epitaph? "I've calmed down now."

Thursday, February 07, 2008

Superdelegates and their Discrepancies (listed by state) - those who voted against the state vote or ahead of its primary

I went to the Democratic Party's list of committed "superdelegates", as well as the CNN listing of which Democratic Candidate has won which states. I put them all, including their names, in a spreadsheet, in order to determine two discrepancies.

First, did someone vote for Clinton... or Obama... despite the fact that their state went to the other candidate?

Secondly, I calculated the number of superdelegates who have already committed, even though their states have not run primaries yet! Both of these discrepancies I find amazing, but more, the latter, as in the previous, some of the states were split.

I did not count states I considered draws, such as Iowa, or which reflected the counts of the voters in their representation among the superdelegates. In my calculations, I noted the following discrepancies out of 354 Superdelegates committed to the two Democratic Party candidates.

In terms of candidates having lost states, but still having received that state's superdelegate(s), the figures were as follows - Clinton, 27 (or 8%) and Obama, 28 (or 8%). In this area, many of Obama's came from California and Massachusetts, which had considerable numbers of delegates, and considerable numbers of votes for Obama in those states' elections. With Clinton, nearly all of hers were in states where Obama had clearly won, such as Minnesota, Alaska, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and Utah.

Super delegates voting against their states' popular votes (Superdelegates for Clinton, popular vote for Obama) included notables:

  • Alaska's only superdelegate (in a state which Obama won),
  • Alabama's DNC chairperson (which split that state's superdelegates in two),
  • all of Delaware's (which Obama had won), including Gov. Ruth Ann Minner
  • half of Georgia's (which Obama clearly won) - including Michael Thurmond (GA), Rep. David Scott (GA), Rep. John Lewis (GA),
  • 2 out of 3 from South Carolina (which Obama won handily),
  • 4 out of 7 from Missouri (which Obama won) including Dick Gephardt,
  • 4 out of 5 in New Mexico, which is still being counted and either considered a draw, or having gone to Obama,
  • 2 of 3 from Utah, which he won.
  • 4 out of 11 from Minnesota (which Obama won decisively) including Walter Mondale, and
  • Also, Clinton gained 1 of 4 in Kansas, which Obama won and 4 of 10 of Colorado's (which Obama won).


Superdelegates voting against their states' popular votes in those states included (Superdelegates for Obama, popular vote for Clinton)

  • 3 of 5 in New Hampshire, which Clinton won
  • 4 of 7 in TN, which Clinton won
  • a split, 1 of 2 in OK, which Clinton won
  • 6 out of a total of 15 in MASS, including Gov. Deval Patrick (MA), Sen. John Kerry (MA), Sen. Ted Kennedy (MA), Rep. William Delahunt (MA), DNC Alan Solomont (MA) (all of his Kennedy supporters beforehand), though Clinton received 9
  • 1 of 3 in Nevada, which Clinton won, but in which Obama received a proportionate share of the vote
  • Gov. Janet Napolitano (AZ), though Clinton took the proper share of delegates, 5 of 7
  • A proper sharefor Obama in CA, 13 of 38, but inclding Rep. George Miller (CA), DNC Norma Torres (CA)
    some DNC committee chairpeople from some of the states he lost.
So in cases where Obama won decisively, there are some states where the superdelegates voted either decisively or unanimously against him - including Alabama, South Carolina, Georgia, Missouri, New Mexico, Alaska, Delaware, and Minnesota. I would suggest looking at the states Obama won, but did not receive any of the Superdelegates votes to date, or at least a minority. Is there a pattern?

Additionally, in their respective home states (or old home states), Illinois and New York (along with Arkansas and New Jersey for Clinton), which each one won their race, but where the other gained some popular vote, those states each gave none (Arkansas) or only one Superdelegate to the opposition. As a result, Clinton retained

  • 39 of 40 in New York (which, interestingly included both Bill Clinton in addition to Hillary Clinton), as well as Gov. Elliot Spitzer, Rep. Charles Rangel, Sen. Chuck Schumer,
  • 12 of 13 in New Jersey, including Gov. John Corzine and Sen. Robert Menendez
  • all of Arkansas’ 8 Superdelegates, including Gov. Mike Beebe and Sen. Mark Pryor
  • while Obama got 18 of 19 in Illinois (also including Sen. Obama, and Gov. Blagojevich, as well as Sen. Dick Durbin).
  • Totals to Clinton – 68/ Totals to Obama – 21. Yet Obama was represented more than that in the popular votes of those 4 states.

In no case, did Obama take a majority of superdelegates from a state he did not win. But he did get significant representation in states he had won significant votes.

In terms of states who have not had elections yet, but where superdelegates have already committed, there is a more decisive trend toward those Superdelegates already having committed to Clinton, despite the fact that there are no popular elections in those states yet. Here, Clinton has 90 superdelegates (or 28% of those committed thus far) and Obama has 42 (or 12%). Some of the notables include:

For Clinton

  • First, the undeclared states of Florida and Michigan, going to Clinton, and where the candidates said they would not campaign, but where Clinton appeared anyway:
  • 6 of 8 in Florida, including Sen. Bill Nelson (FL), Rep. Alcee Hastings (FL), Rep. Kendrick Meek (FL),
  • 7 of 8 in Michigan, including Gov. Jennifer Granholm (MI)
  • 8 of 11 from my home state of PA, including: Gov. Ed Rendell (PA), DNC Hon. TJ Rooney (PA), Rep. Joe Sestak (PA), Rep. Allyson Schwartz (PA), Rep. Paul Kanjorski (PA), DNC Rena Baumgartner (PA), DNC Jean Milko (PA);
  • 11 of 13 from Texas, including Rep. Henry Cuellar (TX), Rep. Ruben Hinojosa (TX), Rep. Silvestre Reyes (TX), Rep. Gene Green (TX), Rep. Solomon Ortiz (TX)
  • 8 of 11 of the superdelegates from DC
  • All 5 from Indiana, including Sen. Evan Bayh (IN),
  • Both from Ohio, including Gov. Ted Strickland (OH)
  • Both from Maine, including the Governor
  • 5 of 7 from Washington. including Sen. Patty Murray (WA), Sen. Maria Cantwell (WA), Rep. Jay Inslee (WA), Former Speaker Tom Foley (WA)
  • 5 of 8 from Virgina, including DNC Terry McAuliffe (VA)
  • 4 of 7 in Maryland, including the Governor, Senator and one Representative
  • 2 of 3 from Oregon, including Gov. Ted Kulongoski (OR)
  • 5 of 7 from Rhode Island, including Sen Whitehouse
  • 4 of 5 from American Samoa,
  • All 3 from Puerto Rico, including the Governor
  • Sen. Daniel Inouye (HI), splitting the 2 declared candidates

For Obama (not nearly so many - 42 to Hillary's 90), but they include:
  • 3 of 4 from NC
  • Both (2) from Mississippi, including Rep. Bennie Thompson (MS),
  • Both (2) from SD, including Fmr Sen. Tom Daschle (SD).
  • Both (2) from Vermont, including Sen. Patrick Leahy (VT),
  • Both (2) from Wyoming
  • The only one declared in Nebraska, Sen. Ben Nelson (NE),
  • A slpit in Hawaii, Rep. Neil Abercrombie (HI),
  • A split of 2 votes in the Virgin Islands, including Gov. John P. deJongh, Jr. (VI), and
  • A split of 2 votes in Wisconsin, including Gov. Jim Doyle (WI)
  • No majority, but 3 of 11 from DC, that included Mayor Adrian Fenty (DC)
  • His only vote from Michigan’s 8 Superdelegates, Rep. John Conyers),
  • Only 3 of 7 from MD, though still not a majority
  • only two from my home state of PA, inlcuding Rep. Patrick Murphy (PA) and Rep. Chaka Fattah (PA)
  • Only 2 of 7 from RI, but including Rep. Patrick Kennedy (RI),
  • Only 3 of 8 from VA, but including Gov. Tim Kaine (VA), and Rep. Bobby Scott (VA),

Only Iowa reflected the tie that it was, and is the only state accurately reflecting voter counts.

I have to question two things on any of the above folks, except for the Kennedys and the Clintons who have obviously declared their personal support for each of the opposing candidates.

Should some of those who voted clearly against the popular vote - and by large margins - be allowed to do so when the state election was not close? and

Shouldn't those in the states who do not have elections be required to wait until those elections are held?

It, unfortunately reeks of machine politics; and were the superdelegates to vote according to their states' popular votes, the counts would be significantly different. It can be calculated quite easily. I'll be posting this on my blogsite, below, including the names of how each of the Superdelegates who have voted thus far are voting, and when they either voted against their state's popular opinion, or voted in advance of their state's election - and who they supported.

Later, I'll look at those who are undeclared. In that, I would like to look only at those who have not declared even though their states have held elections and the two candidates have received popular votes in those states.

However, I note a disturbing trend thus far. Don't YOU?... Don't let them choose your candidate, if you vote Democratic. Insist that they follow the popular vote... or remember THEM when it's time to vote in your state, if you disagree with their votes.

Later, I'll post how all of the Superdelegates voted exactly. And in another blog, I'll list the Superdelegates who have NOT voted and are on the straight and narrow because their states have not voted... OR they haven't voted, even though there has been a popular vote in their state and they should do so accordingly.

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